The results of the local elections were disappointing for the Conservatives, but they were neither catastrophic nor unprecedented.
Poor results in 2013 did not stop the party winning an overall majority in 2015 and the 30% vote share obtained in the 2019 local elections was followed by a 43.7% vote share in the general election in December of the same year.
Perhaps the best thing that anyone can say about the results was that the elections were not held six months ago. Since that time, Rishi Sunak has brought an air of calm and competence to Downing Street that has seen the party’s ratings improve and his own even more so. He is in a good position to shape the political debate inside the Conservative party and in British politics generally.
Good government is not just about a series of initiatives. Nor is it just about being better technocrats than our opponents. It ought to begin with clear first principles which are then translated into cogent and consistent policies.
As a traditional free-market conservative, Rishi Sunak is well placed to implement this.
All too often, in recent times, disparate and even contradictory ideas have been flung together into the same political programme. It has become increasingly prevalent among so-called ‘populist’ governments where the appeal to single interest groups (or focus groups) has taken precedence over a coherent, definable and defensible narrative.
Governments who want to set out a clear vision for their electorates need to have economic, foreign and security and social policies that have an accessible story that explains the direction, aims and values of the government. Having a ‘why’ is as important as a ‘what’.
In medicine, we are taught that one of the ways to improve patient compliance with any treatment is to explain why a treatment is needed. This goes along with modifying beliefs and preconceptions that the patient may already have. There is a saying that education is as important to compliance as location is to real estate. These lessons can usefully be translated into policy making and communication for government.
Conservatives believe in having a smaller state. Why? Because we believe that decisions should be taken as close to the level of individual citizens as possible and that a large state will suppress the creativity and innovation that this individuality provides, and which is essential for our economic progress.
We do not believe in unlimited welfare provision. Why? Because while it is surely our moral duty to look after those who cannot look after themselves, it is not our duty to look after those who have the adequate talents but simply refuse to do so.
We believe that it is wrong to constantly celebrate diversity without emphasising our shared values. Why? Because if we simply celebrate diversity without commonality, we end up not with diversity but fragmentation.
We believe in free and open trade. Why? Because it is how we have taken billions of people out of abject poverty in little more than a generation, one of the greatest achievements in history.
We believe in the value of free markets rather than government diktat. Why? Because markets are the accumulated wisdom and decision-making of millions of people rather than the imposition of the views of a selected few.
We believe that tackling inflation must be the top priority. Why? Not only because it hits the poorest in society hardest, but because the proportion of our national debt repayments linked to inflation has increased to the point where it has become debilitating for the public finances (it is likely to hit over £110 billion in 2023, more than double last year’s £56.4 billion and more than is spent on any government department, except health). Pay rises that boost inflation mean that the government cannot spend this money on either public services or tax cuts. Explaining why we place such importance on the issue is crucial for getting the public onside.
There are many voters who do not see the insipid Kier Starmer and his policy free zone as being an attractive alternative government. If the Conservatives, under Rishi Sunak’s leadership, can start to put some of the ‘why’ back into our politics, then we can move away from sterile assertion to a meaningful debate on issues where there is a natural Conservative majority in the country.
Every setback is also an opportunity. Seizing it now would be in the national interest.
